I have data for four iterations of the Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI). Explore patterns and relationships in this data, and make your findings public.
About the project
The Expert Survey on Progress in AI is in its fourth iteration, and collects a lot of data on AI researcher opinion that doesn't make the headlines. We have generally published the most basic stats, but there is much more to explore, likely including findings of interest to the public conversation or strategic decision-makers. Most recent paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843v1
Theory of change
Knowledge of trends in AI researcher opinion is helpful for policymakers, and for the public and AI researchers in coming to views about how AI is likely to develop and affect society in the coming years. The ESPAI has had wide publicity and its findings have been cited extensively.
Your role
Ideally mentee(s) will manage and carry out the project. I will provide guidance.
I am also open to mentees having substantially less autonomy, for instance me managing the project and instructing them on which questions to investigate, and checking their work before it is made public.
Prerequisites
- Basic data analysis skills
- Writing proficiency
Location preference
10am-6pm PST
Application question(s)
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Provide a link to a writing sample
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Here are the questions for the survey: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/_media/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_espai_paid.pdf
Here is the 2023 paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843
What are two questions you might be interested to explore, in this data? (e.g. How does concern about AI x-risk vary by AI subfield? Do people who have thought more about the timing of AI have earlier or later timelines?) Why? (This is not a commitment, I'm just interested to know how you think about it)
About the mentor
Katja Grace co-founded AI Impacts in 2014. She runs the Expert Survey on Progress in AI. She blogs at worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com. She was considered by TIME magazine to be one of the 100 most influential people in AI in 2024.