One concern about transformational AI is the concentration of economic output and political power in countries that host the frontier AI developers and infrastructure, in particular the US. This project aims to investigate the "permanent periphery" hypothesis via rigorous economic modelling and scope out policy solutions that developing countries might use to secure some exposure to any economic windfall emerging from AI.
About the project
There is a long tradition in trade theory of investigating the impact of technology shocks on the distribution of income across countries. More recently, a nascent geoeconomics literature has emerged that studies the use of economic instruments and relationships to pursue geopolitical ends — and, in the other direction, the analysis of how geopolitical rivalry shapes economic outcomes. I think it would be highly productive to use the tools developed by these literatures to study the impact of AI on developing countries, from both an economic and geopolitical perspective.
Theory of change
This project naturally feeds into exploring and potentially mitigating the risks of extreme power concentration, with a focus on cross-country power concentration and the potential disempowerment of the majority of humanity.
Your role
Help with economic modelling, scoping out scenarios, and running model simulations.
Prerequisites
Economics background with solid programming skills (Python or Julia)
Application question(s)
Imagine you were quickly trying to figure out how plausible a "permanent periphery" scenario is (a scenario where developing countries are relative losers from the AI automation in that their share of world GDP declines, and might even be losers in absolute terms), using the simplest model you could think of. What would that model be, and what are the key parameters you would then have to estimate to come up with a back-of-the envelope level view of the plausibility of the scenario?
About the mentor
I’m an academic economist at the University of Edinburgh. My traditional research fields have been international trade and economic geography, but in the last couple of years I’ve been gradually transitioning into the Economics of AI (with a focus on the growth implications of transformative AI). I was involved in Epoch AI’s GATE project, one of the first integrated assessment models of the AI transition. I'm currently interested in: (1) modelling the AI value chain; (2) modelling the impact of AI on the cross-country distribution of income and power; (3) the risk-return tradeoff of AI regulation (with a particular focus on the expected economic costs of various approaches to regulating AI development and deployment); (4) modelling social preferences around AI-related risks; (5) the effects of AI on social science, and particularly on the production vs verification balance.